Forward thinking Bill James brought baseball enthusiasts into a whole new understanding of the game with his study of sabermetrics. James, the famous number cruncher, opened our eyes to new possibilities and tore down old preconceived notions. Among the many lessons to be learned was his often simplistic approach to the game, like using the phrase, “If you outscore your opponent, you will win 100 percent of the time.” Baseball bettors can profit from this unfettered philosophy by using one of his basic formulas to determine performance: Take the number of runs scored on the season and add the number of runs allowed to create a total. Next, divide the runs scored by the total of the two numbers and you will have a percentage. With roughly half the season or 81 gamespleted in 2011, multiply the determined percentage by games played and you should have a figure establishing the team’s record at the halfway point of the season. Differences greater than two at this point either way would indicate a team is over or under performing. New York Yankees – Actual record 48-31 / James method 51-28As good as the Bronx Bombers have been they should have been better. New York owns the best run differential in baseball by a wide margin at +115 (Boston is second at +82), which has been aided by their recent hot streak, winning 10 of last 12 games. The bullpen is the real crux of the Yankees’ problem. Their save percentage (73%) is lowerpared to their best years and Mariano Rivera really doesn’t have any help with setup men Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain on the shelf. This has led to a 9-11 record in one-run games at almost the halfway mark. If the Pinstripes are pushed, they should reach the century mark in wins. Cincinnati Reds – Actual record 41-40 / James method 44-37This season has featured a great deal of talk about all the surprise teams in baseball. One aspect that we have not heard much about is disappointing clubs. Cincinnati is far ahead of divisionpetitors in RS/RA at +41, thanks to an offense that leads the National League in scoring with 395 runs. The Reds’ weakness is the pitching staff, the same group that sports the 14th ranked ERA in the senior circuit at 4.06. If Cincy can clean up the pitching, it should approach 90 victories.Baltimore Orioles – Actual Record 35-43 / James method 32-46The addition of manager Buck Showalter late last season gave Baltimore fans renewed hope that the franchise would finally start to head in a positive direction. Unfortunately, the Orioles couldn’t add Red Sox or Yankees players to their roster and have settled into last place again. It could actually be worse (record-wise), as the O’s have the second worst RS/RA mark in the American League at -57, thanks to the next to last pitching staff (4.42 ERA) in the league. Because the offense has enjoyed enough big games to ovee the pitching, Baltimore has played beyond its actual numbers. Minnesota Twins - Actual Record 34-45 / James method 29-50While a few Twinkie fans can take solace their team is no longer last place in the AL Central, the big picture is bleak. Minnesota possesses the second worst run differential in the majors at -82 (Houston is -83). No question injuries have played a dramatic role with 12 different players on the DL, which has curtailed the offense dramatically. But don’t forget that the Twins also lost four members from last year’s bullpen and they don’t seem to have adequate starting pitching. With all this misery, the easiest way to detect Minnesota’s woes is its 9-19 record in games decided by four or more runs. Who can afford to back this club?
If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial
Similar Posts:
- MLB Betting – Texas vs. N.Y. Gambling Prediction / Preview
- MLB Pitching Matchups For September 27th
- Run Support Deserts Giant Cain
- Sunday MLB Betting – Dodgers vs. Angels Preview & Pick
- MLB Power Rankings / May 11th 2011
