Unfortunately the final Group One of the British season is upon us, the Racing Post Trophy.
Run over one mile at Doncaster, it’s usually a strong pointer to the following season in terms of the Classics – especially the Epsom Derby. Three of the last ten winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby – High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized. Punters feel this year’s favourite, Camelot, has the class and stamina to go on and emulate the aforementioned. Since the betting opened at the start of the week for this year’s renewal, all punters have wanted is Camelot – both for this race and the Derby. The son of Montjeu is obviously showing plenty at home, but he will have to step up on his previous effort.
Camelot, a son of middle distance great Montjeu, has just had the one racetrack start, way back in mid-July. In the end he won very nicely after travelling very easily throughout. Once given an inch of rein he strode out purposefully in what seemed no more than a light piece of work. Visually it was a very nice debut run – jumping economically from the stalls, travelling well, forfeiting ground around the outside before quickening up nicely. Another positive can be taken from Joseph O’Brien’s post-race comments; the Classic winning jockey saying; “He´s one of the nicer types and there´ll be plenty of improvement in him”.
Ballydoyle have a good record in this race winning five of the last fourteen runnings with a number of placed horses to boot. However, there’re negatives and strong ones at that. The horses in behind that day have hardly boosted the form, the second is now rated 76, the third 78 and the fourth 80 – hardly Group One winning form. A break of one hundred days must also be overcome – has he had a setback? Also, softer ground conditions and a different track configuration must be battled, although these should not hold great fears for a horse of his quality, if the market is right. All in all there are plenty of strong negatives, most notably the form and for that reason, ‘I’m out’.
Saturday’s feature race goes to post at 3pm
A horse with solid credentials is Fencing, hailing from the John Gosden yard. Looking clueless from the start on debut he ran very well from an undesirable draw. The son of Street Cry won ‘his race’ only to find two others too good on the opposite side of the track. The winner is now officially rated 107, the second 95 and the fourth 89. A number of horses in behind now also hold ratings in the eighties. His maiden form looks rock solid. The two-year-old chestnut was to go one better on his next start, though. His maiden win came in Listed company at Newbury and in nice fashion. After travelling well, if a shade keenly, he picked up well to score, after seeing plenty daylight throughout, by a convincing two-and-a-half lengths. A further two lengths was put back to the third horse, a Mark Johnston inmate, now rated 95. After just two runs, further improvement in guaranteed. Gosden stated post-race that he is “really progressive” and if improving ten lbs (which I feel he is capable of) he will take plenty of beating in a race lacking true present class. He looks a lovely prospect; I just hope his seventy day break won’t affect his race sharpness. A step up in trip must also be negotiated, but his pedigree and running style suggest this shouldn’t be a problem and it may well improve him.
Godolphin have just the one runner and will be represented by Encke. The two-year-old son of Kingmambo has just had the two starts – filling the runner-up berth on debut before going on to win well in a Newmarket maiden. In the former of those runs Encke went into many notebooks after just being touched off by the potentially high class Perennial. After jumping on terms Encke saw plenty of daylight early before being tucked in behind by Frankie Dettori. He travelled very kindly and made his race winning move three out, still on the bridle, only to be mowed down late by the winner. Perennial has since gone on to run well in a decent Group Three at headquarters giving Encke’s form a boost. Encke broke his maiden at Newmarket in what was probably a below par maiden for the track. That being said he won very easily and Mahmood Al Zarooni’s post-race comments very encouraging; “Encke is an improving sort and would be one of my best two-year-old colts along with Mighty Ambition.We will look at the Racing Post Trophy”. A fair statement you will agree, but Zarooni is not massively strong in the two-year-old colt department at the moment. All in all he looks a high class prospect and will run well under Frankie Dettori.
Learn will be the Ballydoyle ‘second string’ but, will be no back number. In fact, it would not surprise me in the slightest would he to finish in front of his much more fancied stable mate. The son of Galileo has form tying in with one of this season’s top juveniles, Power. A well bred colt from the family of In The Wings and Virgina Waters, for me, he represents the race value. Ballydolye second strings also have a better than average record in this race which is worth noting.
Zip Top has been supplemented by his shrewd connections and must be monitored on that basis only. However, this may be a bridge too far and others will probably be staying on better come the business end of the race.
Many feel this year’s renewal is ‘poor’ and ‘lacks class’, but I’m of a different opinion. While present top class form is limited here many will progress into genuine group performers next year. It’s very much a race full of potential. Ballydoyle obviously hold strong claims with two entrants – the fancied Camelot and Learn. At the prices I would much rather side with the latter mentioned. While Camelot could well spread-eagle this field, I’m content to let that happen at a price of 11/8. And for what it’s worth, I don’t think he will. Be warned though, I’ve been wrong before! Encke is a horse of great quality and is sure to run well, but Fencing gets the call. John Gosden’s runner has the most potential for me in this line-up and his form is the strongest on offer. He gets the vote with a smaller saver on Learn also advised.
Advice: 2pts win Fencing @ 5/2 0.25pts win Learn @ 14/1
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